IRAN, ITS NEIGHBOURS
AND THE REGIONAL CRISES
A Middle East Programme report
Edited by Robert Lowe and Claire Spencer
Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs) is an independent body which promotes
the rigorous study of international questions and does not express opinions of its own. The opinions
expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the authors.
© The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2006.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by
any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any informations storage
or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all
enquiries to the publishers.
ISBN: 1 86203 174 6
ISBN-13: 978 1 86203 174 6
Cover design and typesetting by Matt Link
Map by Francesca Broadbent
Printed by Kallkwik
Cover photographs
Clockwise from top left:
An Iranian cleric stands in front of a picture of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock and Hizbullah fighters
during a meeting in support of Hizbullah at the Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, outside Tehran, 26 July
2006. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Iranians celebrate after Iran beat Bahrain 1-0 in a World Cup qualifying match at the Azadi Stadium
in Tehran on 8 June 2005, ensuring their qualifiction for the 2006 World Cup Finals in Germany. (AP
Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian)
A reactor building at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Iran and Russia signed a nuclear fuel
agreement on 5 June 2005, paving the way for Iran to get its first reactor up and running. (Vahid
Salemi/AP/EMPICS)
Shanghai Cooperation Organization guests, from left to right, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai pose at the Shanghai International
Convention Centre, China, 15 June 2006. President Ahmadinejad invited China, Russia and other
Central and South Asian nations to convene a special meeting in Iran to boost energy cooperation.
(Elizabeth Dalziel/AP/EMPICS)
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in talks with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud
al-Faisal, Tehran, 12 June 2006. (STR/AP/EMPICS)
The presidents of Iraq and Iran, Jalal Talabani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, at a press conference, in
Tehran, 21 November 2005. President Talabani spent 3 days in Iran discussing bilateral and regional
issues. (Fidan Serkan/ABACA/EMPICS)
Contents
Contributors 4
Executive Summary 5
Introduction 6
Iran 8
Iraq 18
Syria 21
Lebanon 24
Israel 29
Jordan 32
Egypt 34
The Gulf Cooperation Council States 36
Turkey 38
Russia and the Former Soviet States 40
Afghanistan, Pakistan and India 44
China and Japan 48
Appendix: Map of Iran and its Region 50
Contributors
Rime Allaf, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
Ali Ansari, Reader in Modern History, University of St Andrews and Associate Fellow, Middle
East Programme, Chatham House
Maha Azzam, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
Olivia Bosch, Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme, Chatham House
Laura Cooper, Administrator, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
Fadi Hakura, Founder, Conkura Consulting and Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme,
Chatham House
Christopher Hood, Director, Cardiff Japanese Studies Centre, University of Cardiff and Associate
Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House
Ayesha Khan, Centre of International Studies, University of Cambridge and Associate Fellow,
Asia Programme, Chatham House
Robert Lowe, Manager, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
Yiyi Lu, Associate Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House
Valerie Marcel, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme,
Chatham House
Yossi Mekelberg, Lecturer in International Relations and Politics of Development, Webster
Graduate Centre, Regents College and Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham
House
James Nixey, Manager, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Gareth Price, Head, Asia Programme, Chatham House
Farzana Shaikh, Associate, Centre of South Asia Studies, University of Cambridge and Associate
Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House
Nadim Shehadi, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
Gareth Stansfield, Associate Professor in Middle East Politics, University of Exeter and Associate
Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East Programme, Chatham House
The Middle East Programme at Chatham House undertakes research and analysis on the politics
and international relations of the Middle East and North Africa. The programme also provides a
forum for the discussion of Middle East affairs by hosting conferences, seminars and meetings
with visiting speakers. For further information or to join the Middle East Programme meeting
mailing list please email Robert Lowe.
Contact
Robert Lowe, Manager, Middle East Programme
rlowe@chathamhouse.org.uk
Tel: +44 (0)20 7957 5737
4
5
Executive Summary
The Middle East is bedevilled by crises. The war between Hizbullah and Israel, the conflict between
Israelis and Palestinians, the instability in Iraq and the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme create
a climate of deep unease. Iran is involved in all these crises, to a greater or lesser degree, and its
regional role is significant and growing.
In applying pressure on Iran to cease support for Hizbullah, to refrain from hostility towards Israel,
to resist meddling in Iraq and to abandon any thoughts of nuclear military capability, the United
States hopes for the cooperation of Iran’s regional neighbours. However, Iran has successfully
cultivated relations with its neighbours, even those Arab and Sunni states which fear its influence,
and is in a position of considerable strength.
Iran is simply too important – for political, economic, cultural, religious and military reasons – to be
treated lightly by any state in the Middle East or indeed Asia. The wars and continued weaknesses in
Afghanistan and Iraq have further strengthened Iran, their most powerful immediate neighbour,
which maintains significant involvement in its ‘near-abroad’. The US-driven agenda for confronting
Iran is severely compromised by the confident ease with which Iran sits in its region.
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology has recently dominated its relations with the Western powers,
but not those with its regional neighbours. Understanding the dynamics of Iran’s relations with its
neighbours helps explain why Iran feels able to resist Western pressure. While the US and Europeans
slowly grind the nuclear issue through the mills of the IAEA and UN Security Council, Iran continues
to prevaricate, feeling confident of victory as conditions turn ever more in its favour.
Iran’s domestic power structure is complex and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is only one of a number of
players. His dramatic millenarian rhetoric attracts headlines, but the broader governing polity does
share his robust conviction that Iran is the linchpin of a wide region and can maintain firm
independent positions.
Iran views Iraq as its own backyard and has now superseded the US as the most influential power
there; this affords it a key role in Iraq’s future. Iran is also a prominent presence in its other war-torn
neighbour with close social ties, Afghanistan. The Sunni Arab states of Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf
are wary of Iran yet feel compelled by its strength to maintain largely cordial relations while Iran
embarrasses their Western-leaning governments through its stance against the US.
Syria and Iran enjoy an especially close relationship, as most clearly seen in their alliance against the
US and Israel, and support for Hizbullah. Iran’s relationship with Lebanon is long and intricate and
the conflict between Israel and Hizbullah in July-August 2006 may be partly seen in the context of
the broader struggle between Iran and the US/Israel. Israel certainly views Iran as its greatest threat
and the tension between the two has increased.
The relationship between Iran and Turkey pivots between friendship and rivalry but Turkey favours
good relations and the avoidance of further regional instability. Russia is a significant economic
partner to Iran, is heavily involved in its nuclear programme, and tends to take the role of mediator
at the international level.
The recent rapprochement between Iran and Pakistan remains ambiguous while Iran and India have
notably improved ties, mostly on the basis of Indian energy needs. Energy security and economic ties
also dominate Iran’s relations with China and Japan.
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