Monday Analysis: Morocco for the Arab World?; Cuba Hails Community of Latin American and Caribbean States

Here's a turn-up for the books: Morocco wanting to cross-over from the African Union and join the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (as this article testifies). Now, Morocco left what was then the Organisation of African Unity in 1984--and has never rejoined what is the successor to the OAU--the African Union.

Interestingly and ironically, Morocco--a non-AU country--plays host to the headquarters of an AU-recognised regional economic community we know as the Arab Maghreb Union. Can the legal brains explain to us how that works?

If Morocco does go ahead and join the Gulf Cooperation Council, as a non-AU-member, what will happen to its relations with the African Union? The article suggests though the GCC sent Morocco an invite, it would be the odd-one-out in the whole group of GCC states whose GDP out-shadows Morocco's in leaps and bounds.

The invite suggests to me that the recent murmurings about the effectiveness--or lack thereof--of the AU might have raised eyebrows in that part of the world to such an extent that they decided to do some digging of the Arab Maghreb Union--only to find that Morocco, perhaps the least disruptive member, is "available" for business.

Whatever inspired the invite, it can only cement the position and the speculation that the so-called international community wherein regional players make a difference is slowly and surely coming into shape in weird and unexpected ways!

Finally, on the Cuba, it was never going to be any surprise that Cuba would support a gargantuan community/comity of states that excludes Canada and the US. As for the extent to which it would be able to effectively marginalise the fairly invisible Organisation of American States(OAS) is anyone's guess.

With big players like Venezuela; Brazil; and Cuba in the fold, you're likely to get bombastic claims about a regional integration that subsumes UNASUR; MERCOSUR; Andean Community.

Truth be told: it's likely to happen sooner than later. The Latin Americans share a language and are in my view perhaps more radicalised in creating a common future than my counterparts over here in Africa could probably ever be!

A "Regional Stasis" in Latin American integration?

In what is the latest bashing on Latin American integration, a piece in Taipei Times paints an-almost hopeless view of that regions efforts. The piece, penned by Augusto Varas, starts with MERCOSUR, writing that:

The Argentine academic Roberto Bouzas says MERCOSUR is in a critical state of affairs, owing to the inability of its institutions to maintain “the common objectives which drove its member states to engage in the process of regional integration and the consequent loss of focus and capacity to prioritize underlying political problems.”

Then it goes on to point out that it is BRAZIL that wants to establish itself as the hegemon--"intent on assuming a regional and global political role that corresponds to its growing economic weight."

On UNASUR, it writes:

The proposed Union of South American Nations (Unasur), like the South American Defense Council, is part of a Brazilian regional strategy to encourage cooperation within Latin America in order to counterbalance the power of the US and act as a mediator in regional disagreements. While the Unasur proposal may have been formulated in a more rigorous way than other initiatives, its failure to contemplate trade integration means that there is nothing to tie member states together beyond political will.

It ends with an quick, albeit superficial, analysis of the proposed Organisation of Latin American States I have written about before here:

What is important is what he writes:

...Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa proposed some time ago an Organization of Latin American States to replace the Organization of American States (OAS). Although the inclusion of all Latin American states goes some way toward repairing the weakened Brazilian-Mexican axis, and creates a new and more positive environment for future political coordination, this new organization is unlikely to contribute much to actual regional integration

It is generally a good read that merits more critique than I am giving it now. Suffice-to-say that the latest report by the UN Economic Commission on Africa--Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV maintains on p.495 that:

MERCOSUR has met obstacles in consolidating its customs unions, and there are new delays and exceptions to the agreement, especially in the field of textiles and apparel. Nonetheless, MERCOSUR trade has been the most dynamic in the Latin American region, especially with respect to intra-MERCOSUR exports, which increased by almost 140.3 percent since 2004...

Although the picture is not altogether-perfect, ARIA IV does write that:

...during its 19 years of existence, MERCOSUR has proved successful in promoting regional peace and democracy. It has generated high-level political dialogue and cooperation among many domains, from justice and the fight against terrorism to the environment...

In the final analysis, I think I gave the game away when I wrote how the article reeks of dyspeptic gloom about regional integration efforts in Latin America. If he thinks this is chaotic, I wonder what he will have to say about African integration efforts!;-)

Let's face it, though--against such authoritative statistics by no less than the UN Economic Commission on Africa(UNECA), I think the writer better come again!

More than MERCOSUR on My Mind: Goodbye to the OAS?

Is there something about Cancun?

First, WTO trade talks collapse there in 2003. Now, seven years later it is playing host to the birth of a new regional organization—the putative Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

Truth be told, given the gargantuan size of the 32-member RIO group (comprising Latin American and Caribbean states) that has been around since 1986, it was only a matter of time before a formal name be ascribed to the grouping!

As an ardent regional integrationist, who is also a citizen of the Pan-African grouping (that comprises no less than 53 member states), this proposition looks like a delicious response to not just the US and Canada, but the paradigm of uniting under a regional umbrella.

More importantly, it looks to me like members of the Rio group have looked left and right, seen the EU, and the AU, probably heard of developments in East Asia of a Community , and thought "why not in Latin America?"

In my view, the reason why this Community would work is because AU countries, with their eight UNECA-mandated RECs are managing very well, thankyou! Xinhua thoughtfully provided a list of sub-regional organizations in that region—and it’s quite impressive. There are some nine around, with the oldest(Latin American Parliament) having been established in 1964 and the youngest as recently as….

If what I am reading is correct, then the RIO group is keen to have an economic community that would not just comprise 32 members of the Latin American and Caribbean states, but exclude the US and Canada (unlike the OAS). I am sure sometimes AU states have been keen to have an AU without some North African countries that make up the members of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU)!

But on the specific issue of regionalism in this region, I foresee this Community to be more akin to that of an AU in the way it both accepts and accommodates the sub-regional groups, but contemporaneously dissimilar in the way it has been explicit about excluding Canada and the United States.

Honestly speaking, I do not foresee the AU excluding North Africa [especially because of the instrumental role played by Libya] anytime soon. Libyan leader al-Qaddafi’s pivotal role in the AU has perhaps put paid to the desire to jettison any element of the Arab contingent!?